Impact of rising energy prices on petroleum coke
At present, the prices of energy commodities continue to rise to new highs, triggering market stagflation expectations. Even on Wednesday night, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the panel discussion of Russia's energy week that the surge in oil prices is unfavorable to producers, but for the energy market, the dazzling rise in natural gas prices, the soaring cost of coal and carbon, and the low amount of wind power generation will make it possible for oil prices to return to $100. The rising oil price brings cost and capital pressure to domestic refining and chemical enterprises. Will the refinery's production enthusiasm change, and what will happen to the Graphite Petroleum Coke market.
Figure 1 shows the trend chart of the middle price of European TTF natural gas futures contract price. Under the joint influence of policy factors of "carbon neutralization", insufficient supply after the epidemic, extreme weather, demand in cold winter and peak season and other factors, the natural gas price rose rapidly in the second half of this year and kept breaking the high level. High cost natural gas prices have led some power producers to turn their raw materials to oil products.
Figure 2 shows the trend of the closing price of domestic thermal coal contract. As the country that has recovered fastest from the epidemic, China has provided support to global demand, with a significant increase in export volume. The rapid recovery of China and good production enthusiasm have led to an increase in coal demand in power, steel, building materials and other industries. This year, coal has been affected by factors such as reduced supply and import and strong demand, Prices are also rising. The dual track system of coal and electricity in China makes the cost of some power enterprises rise continuously, even operating losses. Due to high coal and natural gas prices and rising costs, some power enterprises seek other oil products as substitutes.
Table 1 shows the domestic power consumption. From January to September of 21 years, the social power consumption increased by 12.9% year-on-year, which confirms the above increase in domestic power consumption demand. At the same time, the total social power consumption and power consumption of various industries in September are less than those in August, which is inevitably affected by the domestic power restriction policy.
Rising coal and natural gas prices have supported oil prices. At the same time, the global market has strong expectations of stagflation. The rise of commodity prices, as an important performance in the early stage of stagflation, further exacerbated market sentiment. Figure 3 shows the price of Brent crude oil futures contract in recent years. Up to now, the crude oil price has reached the level in 2018. It is impossible to draw a conclusion about the future trend.
Figure 4 shows the structure of domestic carbon emissions in 2020, in which coal, oil and natural gas account for 92.23% of the overall, and other energy categories account for only 7.77%. It is expected that there will be little change in 2021 compared with 2020. At present, the three major energy structures of domestic consumption are all under the pressure of rising costs. Up to now, the "scissors difference" between PPI and CPI in August 2021 announced by the Bureau of statistics has also reached a new high, expanding to 10 percentage points. The price of industrial products has been significantly affected by the rise in raw material costs.
Figure 5 shows the changes of domestic Graphite Petroleum Coke production in recent years. So far, domestic Graphite Petroleum Coke production has not changed greatly, that is, from the change of raw material cost, it has no significant impact on the capacity utilization of delayed coking unit.
With the increase of raw material costs and the tightening of domestic production and power restriction policies, the domestic raw aluminum output has decreased significantly. Its changes can be clearly found in Figure 6. With the decline of primary aluminum production, the petroleum coke required for the production of prebaked anode will be affected.
To sum up, since the European natural gas crisis, the shortage of domestic coal, and the current crude oil price rising to a high level in recent 4 years, the prices of related products have also been affected to varying degrees. As a downstream product of the petroleum refining and petrochemical industry, the utilization rate of delayed coking capacity of domestic refineries has not changed significantly, and the domestic supply of Graphite Petroleum Coke has not fluctuated significantly; However, the rising coal price and the chain effect on the shortage of domestic power have limited the capacity utilization rate of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry to a certain extent. If the current situation does not change or ease, the demand side of Graphite Petroleum Coke may bear pressure and the delivery of Graphite Petroleum Coke will slow down, resulting in pressure on the price of Graphite Petroleum Coke and a certain range of shock correction in the future.